In 2019, mobile video will account for 72% of all global mobile data traffic

Global mobile data traffic will grow almost 10 times between 2014 and 2019, according to the Cisco VNI Report.

Global mobile data traffic will multiply by almost 10 in the next five years, reaching 292 Exabytes annually in 2019 (30 Exabytes in 2014), which represents an interannual increase ratio of 57% between 2014 and 2019. In Spain, global mobile data traffic will multiply by 7 in said period, reaching 2 Exabytes annually in 2019 (46% year-on-year increase rate).

This follows from the Informe Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) on Global Mobile Data Traffic 2014-2019, which reveals how this significant growth is largely due to the growing number of more powerful mobile devices and Machine-to-Machine (M2M) connections, along with greater access to faster cellular networks.

In 2014, 88% of all global mobile data traffic was 'smart traffic', processed through devices with advanced computing/multimedia capabilities and a minimum of 3G connectivity, a figure that is expected to increase to 97% in 2019. In Spain, 100 percent of mobile data traffic will be smart in 2019 (98% in 2014). The transition from feature phones to smartphones, combined with the exponential growth of tablets, laptops and M2M applications, are the key factors to support the increase in smart traffic.

In terms of mobile networks, 3G is expected to surpass 2G as the predominant cellular technology by connection share in 2017 on a global scale. By 2019, 3G networks will support 44% of all mobile devices and connections globally, while 4G will support 26% (although it will generate 68% of traffic), 2G 22% and LPWA (Low Power Wide Area networks) 8%. In Spain, 3G surpassed 2G as the predominant cellular technology in 2013 or earlier, and 4G will occupy this place in 2019 (37.6%) compared to 3G (34.9%), 2G (11.5%) and LPWA (16%). In 2014, 4G accounted for 11.1% of total mobile connections in Spain.

The 292 Exabytes of annual mobile data expected for 2019 are equivalent to 292 times the sum of all IP traffic (fixed and mobile) generated in the year 2000, 65 trillion images (such as MMS or Instagram), 23 daily images generated by each person on the planet for a full year, or 6 trillion video clips (for example from YouTube) or more than two video clips per day generated by each inhabitant of the Earth for a year.

Main drivers

Between 2014 and 2019, Cisco predicts that the growth of global mobile data traffic will exceed the growth of global fixed data traffic three times (as in Spain).

In 2019 there will be 5.2 billion mobile users (up from 4.3 billion in 2014). In 2014, almost 59% of the world's population (7.2 billion people) were mobile users, a figure that will exceed 69% (of a total of 7.6 billion inhabitants) in 2019. In Spain there will be 42 million mobile users in 2019 (88% of the population), up from the 40.5 million registered in 2014 (0.7% year-on-year increase).

In 2019 there will be nearly 11.5 billion mobile devices/connections - including 8.3 billion personal mobile devices and 3.2 billion M2M connections -, up from the 7.4 billion M2M devices and connections recorded in 2014. In Spain there will be 112 million mobile devices/connections in 2019 (approximately 2.3 per inhabitant), with an interannual increase rate 14% between 2014 and 2019 (from the 57 million devices counted in 2014). In Spain there will be 59 million M2M connections in 2019 (9 million in 2014), and M2M traffic will grow 109% between 2014 and 2019, accounting for 12% of all mobile data traffic (2% in 2014).

Regarding the global average speed of connections through mobile networks, it will multiply by 2.4 between 2014 (1.7 Mbps) and 2019 (4 Mbps). In Spain, the average speed of mobile connections will multiply by 2 between 2014 (2.5 Mbps) and 2019 (4.9 Mbps).

Finally, it should be noted that in 2019 mobile video will account for 72% of all global mobile data traffic (up from 55% calculated in 2014). In Spain, video will account for 73% of all mobile data traffic in 2019, compared to 57% calculated in 2014 (year-on-year increase rate of 54%).

Increased 4G connectivity

A large number of service providers around the world are deploying 4G technologies to meet the increased demand for wireless services and content from consumers and businesses. In many emerging markets, operators are building new mobile networks with 4G solutions. In some mature markets, service providers are completing or replacing legacy networks (2G/3G) with 4G technologies.

In 2019, 26% of all devices and connections globally will be compatible with 4G technologies (6.2% in 2014). The number of 4G connections will multiply by 7 on a global scale, from 459 million in 2019 to 3,000 million in 2019. In Spain, 4G connections will multiply by 7 between 2014 and 2019, with an interannual increase rate of 46%.

In 2017, 3G will surpass 2G as the predominant cellular technology in terms of connection share (in Spain this happened in 2013 or before).

In 2014, 4G traffic accounted for 40% of all global mobile data traffic (30.7% in Spain), and in 2019 it will account for 68% (80.9% in Spain), with a year-on-year increase of 75% globally and 77% in Spain.

Last year, the average 4G connection generated 2.2 Gbs of mobile data traffic per month, and in 2019 it will generate 5.5 Gbs (compared to the 1 Gbs per month that the average non-4G connection will generate). In Spain, the average 4G connection generated 1.2 Gbs of mobile data traffic per month, and in 2019 it will generate 3.2 Gbs (compared to the 0.6 Gbs per month that the average non-4G connection will generate).

WiFi facing cellular traffic

‘Descarga’ hace referencia al tráfico descargado desde dispositivos duales (con conectividad WiFi y celular, excluyendo los portátiles) sobre redes WiFi y small cell. Esto ocurre a nivel de usuario o de dispositivo cuando se migra entre una conexión celular y una conexión WiFi/small cell. Las previsiones de ‘descarga’ del Informe Cisco VNI sobre Tráfico Global de Datos Móviles 2014-2019 incluyen tráfico generado desde puntos de acceso públicos y redes WiFi residenciales.

En 2014 el 46% de todo el tráfico móvil global (43% en España) fue descargado, cifra que aumentará hasta el 54% en 2019 (57% en España).

Without this download, the annual increase rate of global mobile data traffic between 2014 and 2019 would be significantly higher (65% instead of 57% on a global scale and 55% instead of 46% in Spain).