The increase in smart devices, mobile video and 4G networks will multiply global mobile data traffic by 8

In just five years, according to the Cisco VNI Mobile report, mobile video will have the highest growth rate of all mobile applications.

In 2020 there will be 5.5 billion mobile users globally (70% of the world's population) with an average of 1.5 connections per capita, while in Spain there will be 40.8 million mobile users (88% of the population), with an average of 2 connections per capita.

This is clear from the Report Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) on Global Mobile Data Traffic 2015-2020, which reveals how the adoption of smart mobile devices, greater mobile coverage through 4G networks and the growing demand for content including video will multiply global mobile data traffic by 8 in the next five years. In Spain, global mobile data traffic will multiply by 7 in said period.

Smart mobile devices and connections are expected to account for 72% of the total in 2020 (up from 36% in 2015) and generate 98% of mobile traffic on that date. In Spain, smart mobile devices and connections will account for 74% of the total in 2020 (from 66% in 2015) and will generate 100% of mobile traffic on that date.

Smart phones will generate 81% of all global mobile data traffic in 2020 (76% in 2015). The proliferation of mobile phones including “phablets” (which combine features and functionality of smart phones and tablets) is growing so rapidly that more people will have mobile phones (5.4 billion) than electricity (5.3 billion), running water (3.5 billion) or cars (2.8 billion) in 2020. In Spain, smart phones will generate 75% of all global mobile data traffic in 2020.

For its part, mobile video will have the highest growth rate of all mobile applications. The greater demand for better video resolution and greater bandwidth and processing speed will increase the use of devices connected to 4G networks, so that 4G will surpass 2G as the predominant cellular technology in 2018, and 3G in 2020. 4G will thus account for more than 70% of all mobile traffic in 2020, while 4G connections will generate six times more traffic per month than the rest of mobile connections on that date. In Spain, 4G will account for 86% of all mobile traffic in 2020 (49% at the end of 2015) and 51% of total mobile connections (22% in 2015).

Global trafficking

In 2020, global mobile data traffic will reach 366.8 Exabytes annually (44.2 Exabytes in 2015) or 30.6 Exabytes monthly (3.7 Exabytes in 2015), which represents an interannual increase ratio of 53% between 2015 and 2020. In Spain, global mobile data traffic will reach 2.9 Exabytes annually or 240 Petabytes monthly in 2020 (interannual increase rate of 47%).

The 366.8 Exabytes annually are equivalent to 120 times more than all the global mobile data traffic generated in 2010 or what is the same, 81 billion images (such as MMS or Instagram) or 7 billion video clips (for example, YouTube) or more than 2.5 video clips daily for each inhabitant of the planet for a year.

Between 2015 and 2020, global mobile data traffic will increase twice as fast (three times in Spain) as global fixed data traffic.

In 2020, more than 75% of global mobile data traffic will be video (76% in Spain).

In 2015, 51% of all mobile traffic was downloaded over WiFi and small cell networks (50% in Spain), while in 2020 55% will do so (60% in Spain).

Smarter connections

In 2020 there will be 11.6 billion mobile devices/connections (including 8.5 billion personal mobile devices and 3.1 billion M2M connections), up from the 7.9 billion M2M devices and connections recorded in 2015. In Spain there will be 105.5 million mobile devices/connections in 2020 (approximately 2 per inhabitant), up from 59.6 million devices. accounted for in 2015.

Globally, 72% of mobile devices/connections will be smart in 2020 (36% in 2015), and 98% of all mobile data traffic will come from smart devices and connections (89% in 2015). In Spain, smart mobile devices and connections will account for 74% of the total in 2020 (66% in 2015) and will generate 100% of mobile traffic on that date. In Spain there will be 51.3 million M2M connections in 2020 (9.4 million in 2015), and M2M traffic will grow 27 times between 2015 and 2020, accounting for 12% of all mobile data traffic (3% at the end of 2015).

Smart phones, laptops and tablets will generate around 92% of all global mobile data traffic in 2020 (94% in 2015), while M2M traffic will account for 7% (3% in 2015) and basic terminals 1% (3% in 2015).

In 2020, 66% of all mobile devices/connections will support IPv6 (36% in 2015), while IPv6 traffic will account for 54% of all mobile data traffic (13% in 2015). In Spain, 71% of all mobile devices/connections will be compatible with IPv6 (62% in 2015).

4G connectivity

The global average speed of mobile networks will increase by 3.2 between 2015 (2 Mbps) and 2020 (6.5 Mbps). In Spain, the average speed of mobile connections will multiply by 3 between 2015 (3.8 Mbps) and 2020 (12 Mbps).

In 2020, 4G connections will account for 40.5% of the total (13.7% in 2015), 3G connections 38.7% (33.7% in 2015) and 2G connections 13.5% (52.3% in 2015). In Spain, 4G connections will account for 51% of the total in 2020 (22% in 2015), 3G connections 25% (60% in 2015), 2G connections 7% (16% in 2015), while LPWA connections will account for the remaining 17% (2% in 2015).

4G traffic will multiply by 13 between 2015 and 2020 on a global scale (in Spain it will multiply by 12) and 4G connections will process 72% of all mobile data traffic (86% in Spain) from 47% in 2015 (49% in Spain).

WiFi connection points increase

WiFi connection points or hotspots - including those in homes - will multiply by 7 on a global scale between 2015 (64 million) and 2020 (432 million), while home hotspots will increase from the 57 million recorded in 2015 to the 423 million expected for 2020.

In 2015, traffic downloaded to WiFi networks monthly (3.9 Exabytes) exceeded monthly mobile/cellular traffic (3.7 Exabytes) for the first time.

In 2020, 38.1 Exabytes of monthly data downloaded to WiFi networks will be generated, also exceeding the expected monthly mobile/cellular traffic (30.6 Exabytes).