Global IP traffic will triple by 2019

IP video will account for 80 percent of this traffic. More than two-thirds of global IP traffic will originate from mobile connections (including WiFi) in 2019.

Global Internet Protocol (IP) traffic will multiply by three in the next four years, reaching 2 Zettabytes (more than 2 trillion Gigabytes) annually, which represents an annual increase rate of 23 percent between 2014 and 2019.

In Spain, IP traffic will multiply by 2 in this period, reaching 17 Exabytes per year in 2019, the equivalent in Gigabytes of all the films produced in the world in history crossing Spanish IP networks every four hours, from the 8 Exabytes per year registered in 2014 (interannual growth rate of 16 percent).

This is clear from the tenth edition of the Annual Report Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI) Global Forecast and Service Adoption 2014-2019, which points out as the main factors of this evolution the significant increase in Internet users, personal devices and Machine-to-Machine (M2M) connections, the higher speed of broadband and the adoption of advanced video services.

Drivers of global traffic

Cisco expects global IP traffic to reach 168 Exabytes per month in 2019 (up from 59.9 Exabytes per month in 2014), so the traffic crossing networks on a global scale in 2019 will be almost equal to the sum of all traffic from previous years (between 1984 and the end of 2013).

As fixed and mobile networks spread, more people will have access to the Internet. In 2019 there will be nearly 3.9 billion Internet users (51 percent of the projected world population: 7.2 billion inhabitants according to the UN). In 2014, the number of global Internet users was 2.8 billion (39 percent of a total population of 7.2 billion). In Spain there will be 37.3 million Internet users in 2019 (78 percent of the population), up from 36.4 million in 2014 (77 percent of the population).

With 24 billion devices/connections expected for 2019 (compared to 14 billion in 2014), service provider networks will need to adapt to the growing number of next-generation devices, including tablets, smart phones and ultra-high-definition TVs, as well as M2M connections and wearable devices such as smart watches or health monitors. In 2019 there will be 3.2 devices/connections per capita on a global scale, from the 2 devices/connections per person registered in 2014. In Spain there will be 307 million connected devices in 2017 (6 connections per inhabitant), from a total of 155 million recorded in 2014 (3 connections per capita).

These advanced devices will need to be authenticated to gain access to fixed and mobile networks, which requires greater intelligence, management and security capabilities. In this sense, it is essential to rely on a complete migration strategy to IPv6 so that operators can manage the growing volume and complexity of new generation devices and connections. 41 percent of all fixed and mobile devices/connections will support IPv6 in 2019 (22 percent in 2014). In Spain, 45 percent of all fixed and mobile devices/connections will be compatible with IPv6 in 2019 (34 percent in 2014).

Higher broadband speed

Globally, the average fixed broadband speed will multiply by 2 between 2014 and 2019, from 20.3 Mbps to 42.5 Mbps. In year-on-year terms, the average fixed broadband speed grew by 26 percent globally between 2013 and 2014, from 16 to 20.3 Mbps. In Spain, the average fixed broadband speed will multiply by 2 between 2014 and 2019, from 19 to 46 Mbps. Between 2013 and 2014, the average fixed broadband speed grew by 6 percent in Spain, from 18 Mbps to 19 Mbps.

By region, Western Europe and Asia-Pacific will continue to lead speeds in fixed broadband connections, and both North America and other regions are upgrading their network resources to support a greater number of bandwidth-intensive applications and content, such as ultra-high-definition video. In 2019, 33 percent of all fixed broadband connections globally will exceed 25 Mbps (29 percent today) and 26 percent will exceed 50 Mbps (14 percent today). To know the expected mobile broadband speeds, you can access the Cisco VNI Mobile Update Report published in March of this year. In Spain, 33 percent of all fixed broadband connections will exceed 25 Mbps in 2019 (26 percent currently) and 23 percent will exceed 50 Mbps (15 percent currently).

Video services

IP video will account for 80 percent of all IP traffic in 2019, up from 67 percent in 2014. In Spain, IP video will account for 78 percent of all IP traffic in 2019 (51 percent in 2014).
The rise of advanced video services - such as ultra-high definition and spherical/360 video - and video-based M2M applications could mean new bandwidth and scalability requirements for service providers, while residential, business and mobile users will continue to demand these services across all types of networks and devices, with quality, ease of use, content/user experience and price being key requirements in operators' offerings.

Mobility

In 2019, more than 14 percent of monthly IP traffic (12 percent in Spain) will come from cellular connections globally, while 53 percent will come from WiFi connections (58 percent in Spain). This evolution reflects the growing importance of establishing differentiated mobile strategies by service providers.

WiFi and connected mobile devices will generate 67 percent of all IP traffic in 2019 (WiFi 53 percent and cellular connections 14 percent), compared to fixed traffic that will account for 33 percent of all traffic globally. In Spain, WiFi and connected mobile devices will generate 70 percent of all IP traffic in 2019 (WiFi 58 percent and cellular connections 12 percent), compared to fixed traffic that will account for 30 percent.

In 2014, fixed traffic accounted for 54 percent of all IP traffic (40 percent in Spain), while WiFi represented 42 percent IP (56 percent in Spain) and 4 percent cellular (4 percent in Spain).

Internet of Everything and M2M connections

The increase in M2M connections - which will multiply by more than 3 in the next five years to reach 10.5 billion on a global scale (182 million in Spain in 2019, 59 percent of the total connected devices) - contributes significantly to the evolution of the IoE, which is being adopted by numerous sectors - including manufacturing, retail, transportation, healthcare or agriculture - and by connected homes (smart meters, security cameras, temperature and lighting controllers, ...).

The connected health segment will account for the fastest growth in M2M connections, multiplying by 8.6 (54 percent year-on-year increase) between 2014 and 2019.

The connected home segment will represent almost 48 percent of all M2M connections in 2019. Global IP traffic from M2M connections will increase 15-fold in the period analyzed, from 308 Petabytes in 2014 (0.5 percent of all global IP traffic) to 4.6 Exabytes in 2019 (2.7 percent of all global IP traffic). In Spain, IP traffic from M2M connections will account for 6 percent of all IP traffic (0.1 percent in 2014).

Online music

Online music will be the fastest growing residential Internet service, with a year-on-year growth rate of 7.7 percent between 2014 and 2019, rising from 1.2 billion users in 2014 to 1.7 billion in 2019. Location-based mobile services will be the fastest growing consumer mobile service, with a year-on-year growth rate of 27.5 percent among 2014 and 2019, going from 597 million users in 2014 to more than 2,000 million in 2019. For its part, desktop and personal video conferencing will be the fastest growing business Internet service, with an interannual increase rate of 23.5 percent between 2014 and 2019, going from 76 million users in 2014 to 220 million in 2019.

Video

TVs with 4K capacity installed/in service will increase from 9.9 million in 2014 to 371.5 million in 2019, accounting for 31 percent of all flat screen TVs in 2019 (2.7 percent in 2014) and accumulating a year-on-year increase rate of 106 percent.

In Spain, TVs with 4K capacity installed/in service will increase from 69,000 units in 2014 to 4.4 million in 2019, accounting for 24 percent of all flat screen TVs in 2019 (0.1 percent in 2014) and accumulating an interannual increase rate of 129 percent

Video on demand in the consumer segment will multiply by almost 2 between 2014 and 2019 to reach 26.8 Exabytes per month in 2019, with a year-on-year increase rate of 14 percent. In Spain, video on demand in the consumer segment will multiply by 2 between 2014 and 2019 until reaching 134 Petabytes per month in 2019, with an interannual increase rate of 15 percent.