Between now and 2032, four tons of satellites will be launched per day

Euroconsult In its latest report 'Satellites to be Built and Launched' it foresees an average of more than 2,800 satellites launched annually, which is equivalent to 8 satellites per day and a total mass of 4 tons between 2023 and 2032.

The report sheds light on the long-term dynamics of the satellite market, emphasizing sustained demand, the concentration of NGSO constellations, and the seismic shifts brought about by a handful of mega constellations, with particular attention to the short-term bottleneck faced by incumbent providers.

Las NGSO commercial constellations, known for their size and advanced capabilities, are reshaping satellite manufacturing and deployment to deliver global connectivity. They dominate the sector concentrate 65% of satellite demand, but they only contribute 18% of the manufacturing and launch value, with an annual average of 10.5 billion dollars.

In comparison, GEO comsats will cost an average of $3.4 billion. Euroconsult foresees a moderate increase in demand for GEO comsat, exceeding the levels of the last decade, with an average of 14 orders per year between now and 2032. However, these are smaller satellites, which translates into a reduced market value. This shift reflects the decline of the broadcasting business and a transition to the expanding broadband business, underscoring the need for scalable solutions.

The report also reveals strong and sustained demand for satellites from traditional customers. Civilian and defense government operators alone account for three-quarters of the $58 billion average annual value of the manufacturing and launch market. The six major space governments or organizations (US, China, Russia, Japan, India and European governments, EU and ESA) will alone account for two-thirds of the total value of satellite manufacturing and launch demand. Readers are therefore advised to look beyond the raw numbers and look at the market value to get an accurate idea of ​​it.

Maxime Puteaux, Space Industry Practice Leader at Euroconsult and author of the report, highlights that “the growing concentrated demand for satellites from a handful of new customers, together with the high pressure on their cost structures and internalized supply chains, is reconfiguring market dynamics and putting pressure on suppliers' margins.” He added: “The scarcity of launches and dependence on SpaceX's Western customers creates market concentration that will have long-term effects on the sector.”

An intriguing aspect covered in the report is the short-term bottleneck faced by established vendors prepared to introduce new generation launchers. The challenges of this transition phase are analyzed in depth, providing stakeholders with crucial information on the lasting market impact and spin-off effects.

The report addresses the extraordinary results of SpaceX and its de facto monopoly, given that the competition's next-generation launchers are about to come into operation. The implications of this domain are analyzed, offering a complete understanding of how the dynamics of the industry are shaped by this major player.

The report Satellites to be Built & Launched includes a revised pricing model for manufacturing and launch prices. In particular, it takes into account the inflation-driven cost and price increases that have already occurred in the manufacturing and launch industries, as well as the prices expected for the coming years.

The Euroconsult report incorporates new content to provide decision makers with key insights in this area, as well as a revised and updated forecast that takes into account the economic situation and current tensions on the supply chain and the changing macroeconomic environment.

The forecast of satellites to be built and launched is based on a comprehensive demand for satellites through an evaluation of downstream markets, the strategy and maturity of satellite operators and new players or needs that arise in the future. Since the long-term future of satellite demand does not result from the sum of currently known projects (through the pending satellite portfolio and launch planning), Euroconsult applies various discount factors to them depending on their credibility. Therefore, all figures related to the constellations presented are derived from Euroconsult's assumptions and do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the operators.